Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Mark WilliamsPoints18
- Miles BridgesAssists6
- Tidjane SalaunRebounds14
Raptors- Jakob PoeltlPoints24
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists9
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–108
- Q44.2Jamal Shead defensive rebound97–108
- Q47.1Miles Bridges misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot97–108
- Q412.1Tidjane Salaun offensive rebound97–108
- Q414.2Miles Bridges misses 23-foot three point jumper97–108
- Q416.1Hornets offensive team rebound97–108
- Q419.0Miles Bridges misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot97–108
- Q426.0Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound97–108
- Q429.0Jamal Shead misses 17-foot pullup jump shot97–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:08Nick Smith Jr. makes 31-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)CHA 43 – 44 TOR · CHA 28% → 36% +8CHA 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q210.1Ja'Kobe Walter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)CHA 45 – 49 TOR · TOR 64% → 72% +8TOR 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q311:43Miles Bridges makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 50 – 49 TOR · CHA 33% → 42% +8CHA 33% → 42%+8 pts
- Q38:58KJ Simpson makes 28-foot three pointerCHA 60 – 57 TOR · CHA 40% → 49% +9CHA 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q37:04Immanuel Quickley makes 29-foot three point jumper (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)CHA 60 – 68 TOR · TOR 75% → 82% +7TOR 75% → 82%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -5.5
- ML CHA +180 / TOR -215
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -8.5
- TOR 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 80.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -191
- CHA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 107.0 – 112.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1275 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −46 | +24 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +241 Elo | TOR 80.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 69.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.8 | Points scored | 110.524th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 115.319th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.2 | Margin | −4.824th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.8 | Offense rating | 108.226th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.410th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–28 | Road vs home | 16–2123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–38 | 45–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 34–30 | 39–23 |
| Overs–unders | 28–44 | 36–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–3 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.