Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Nick Smith Jr.Points19
- LaMelo BallAssists11
- Miles BridgesRebounds13
Heat- Andrew WigginsPoints42
- Davion MitchellAssists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–122
- Q419.1DaQuan Jeffries enters the game for Miles Bridges105–122
- Q419.1Kel'el Ware enters the game for Andrew Wiggins105–122
- Q419.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. enters the game for Tyler Herro105–122
- Q419.1Pelle Larsson enters the game for Bam Adebayo105–122
- Q419.1shot clock turnover105–122
- Q443.1KJ Simpson lost ball turnover (Davion Mitchell steals)105–122
- Q446.1Davion Mitchell makes driving layup105–122
- Q41:08Nick Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)105–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:54Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Andrew Wiggins assists)CHA 19 – 14 MIA · MIA 52% → 59% +7MIA 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q13:35Tidjane Salaun makes 24-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 22 – 14 MIA · CHA 42% → 48% +7CHA 42% → 48%+7 pts
- Q211:21LaMelo Ball makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)CHA 29 – 22 MIA · CHA 41% → 48% +7CHA 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q210:45Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three pointer (Davion Mitchell assists)CHA 32 – 25 MIA · MIA 44% → 52% +7MIA 44% → 52%+7 pts
- Q29:28Seth Curry makes 27-foot three pointer (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 39 – 29 MIA · CHA 49% → 57% +7CHA 49% → 57%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -7.5
- ML CHA +230 / MIA -280
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4
- MIA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 66.1%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- MIA -243
- CHA +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 103.5 – 111.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1289 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | −29 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Nikola Jovic −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +116 Elo | MIA 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 68.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.8 | Points scored | 109.026th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 110.77th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.1 | Margin | −1.719th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.7 | Offense rating | 110.421st of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.7 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–27 | Road vs home | 15–1923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−29 Elo- Nikola Jovic broken right hand−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–36 | 29–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 34–28 | 14–20 |
| Overs–unders | 26–44 | 36–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–6 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.