Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Orlando RobinsonPoints23
- Jamal SheadAssists8
- Orlando RobinsonRebounds12
Nets- Nic ClaxtonPoints22
- Keon JohnsonAssists5
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–86
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–86
- Q41.0shot clock turnover116–86
- Q425.1Jalen Wilson makes 2-foot layup (Dariq Whitehead assists)116–86
- Q426.2Maxwell Lewis offensive rebound116–84
- Q430.1Jonathan Mogbo blocks Maxwell Lewis 's 5-foot driving layup116–84
- Q445.1Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw 2 of 2116–84
- Q445.1Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw 1 of 2115–84
- Q445.1Maxwell Lewis shooting foul114–84
- Q453.2Keon Johnson makes driving layup114–84
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:43Jamal Shead makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 5 – 2 BKN · TOR 45% → 51% +6TOR 45% → 51%+6 pts
- Q14:53Dariq Whitehead makes 23-foot three point jumper (Maxwell Lewis assists)TOR 20 – 12 BKN · BKN 31% → 37% +6BKN 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q210:48Dariq Whitehead makes 24-foot three point shot (Noah Clowney assists)TOR 32 – 26 BKN · BKN 33% → 40% +7BKN 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q26:26RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Orlando Robinson assists)TOR 46 – 32 BKN · TOR 73% → 79% +6TOR 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q25:50Jamal Shead makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)TOR 49 – 35 BKN · TOR 73% → 79% +6TOR 73% → 79%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -2.5
- ML TOR +115 / BKN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -0.5
- BKN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- BKN: Elo 51.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BKN -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 106.5 – 109.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1359 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | −45 | TOR: Missing Jakob Poeltl −29, Immanuel Quickley −27 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Missing Day'Ron Sharpe −26, Cam Thomas −25 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +7 Elo | BKN 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 105.329th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 111.59th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.3 | Margin | −6.226th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 107.327th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 113.719th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.3 | Pace | 97.529th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 26th of 309–26 | Road vs home | 11–2327th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−45 Elo- Jakob Poeltl rest−29 Elo
- Immanuel Quickley rest−27 Elo
Nets
−45 Elo- Day'Ron Sharpe sprained right knee−26 Elo
- Cam Thomas strained left hamstring−25 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–28 | 40–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 38–23 | 36–26 |
| Overs–unders | 36–36 | 31–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–4 BKN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.