Dallas Mavericks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints22
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists12
- Kai JonesRebounds9
Nets- Nic ClaxtonPoints19
- Cameron JohnsonAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–101
- Q40.1shot clock turnover120–101
- Q421.1Dwight Powell defensive rebound120–101
- Q424.0Tyrese Martin misses two point shot120–101
- Q437.0Brandon Williams makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot120–101
- Q444.1Brandon Williams offensive rebound118–101
- Q447.1Naji Marshall misses driving layup118–101
- Q459.1Jalen Wilson bad pass (Max Christie steals)118–101
- Q41:07Tyrese Martin defensive rebound118–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:46Max Christie makes 25-foot three point shot (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 15 – 6 BKN · DAL 69% → 75% +6DAL 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q14:38Ziaire Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)DAL 21 – 11 BKN · BKN 18% → 23% +5BKN 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q24:39Tyrese Martin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)DAL 45 – 35 BKN · BKN 16% → 21% +5BKN 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q310:40Ziaire Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)DAL 66 – 54 BKN · BKN 10% → 15% +5BKN 10% → 15%+5 pts
- Q38:08Spencer Dinwiddie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)DAL 71 – 56 BKN · DAL 86% → 91% +5DAL 86% → 91%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -2.5
- ML DAL -145 / BKN +125
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3.5
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -133
- BKN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 110.0 – 107.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1370 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −23 | DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −26, D'Angelo Russell −25 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +100 Elo | DAL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 105.429th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 111.49th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −6.126th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 107.327th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 113.519th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.2 | Pace | 97.629th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 19th of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 11–2227th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+16 Elo- Dereck Lively II stress fracture−10 Elo
Nets
−23 Elo- Cam Thomas left hamstring strain−26 Elo
- D'Angelo Russell right ankle soreness−25 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–36 | 40–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 21–20 | 36–25 |
| Overs–unders | 38–33 | 30–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 BKN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.