Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints32
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints25
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Mark WilliamsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–104
- Q416.1Paolo Banchero defensive rebound111–104
- Q419.1Miles Bridges misses running pullup jump shot111–104
- Q425.0Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound111–104
- Q427.0Franz Wagner misses free throw 2 of 2111–104
- Q427.0Mark Williams enters the game for Moussa Diabate111–104
- Q427.0Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2111–104
- Q427.0Moussa Diabate personal take foul110–104
- Q428.0Moussa Diabate enters the game for Nick Smith Jr.110–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:21LaMelo Ball makes 33-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 97 – 97 CHA · CHA 30% → 46% +16CHA 30% → 46%+16 pts
- Q45:57Franz Wagner makes 29-foot three pointerORL 100 – 97 CHA · ORL 54% → 70% +17ORL 54% → 70%+17 pts
- Q43:21Paolo Banchero makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Gary Harris assists)ORL 104 – 101 CHA · ORL 60% → 74% +14ORL 60% → 74%+14 pts
- Q42:18Nick Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)ORL 104 – 104 CHA · CHA 22% → 48% +26CHA 22% → 48%+26 pts
- Q41:58Anthony Black makes dunkORL 106 – 104 CHA · ORL 52% → 71% +19ORL 52% → 71%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -4.5
- ML ORL -165 / CHA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4.5
- ORL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- ORL: Elo 66.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ORL -149
- CHA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 109.5 – 105.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1280 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −5 | −11 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +120 Elo | ORL 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 63.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.0 | Points scored | 105.828th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.1 | Points allowed | 114.015th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −8.228th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 105.729th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 113.921st of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.8 | Pace | 99.620th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–21 | Road vs home | 11–2528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–36 | 34–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–17 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 14–19 | 34–29 |
| Overs–unders | 30–42 | 27–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 6–1 CHA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.