Charlotte Hornets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints20
- Jusuf NurkicAssists5
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds12
Pelicans- Keion Brooks Jr.Points17
- Elfrid PaytonAssists6
- Bruce BrownRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–98
- Q43.0Jose Alvarado defensive rebound94–98
- Q43.0Tidjane Salaun misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot94–98
- Q45.1Yves Missi enters the game for Antonio Reeves94–98
- Q45.1(00:05.6) [Hornets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)94–98
- Q45.1Hornets Full timeout94–98
- Q45.1Keion Brooks Jr. makes 2-foot layup (Jose Alvarado assists)94–98
- Q430.1Antonio Reeves enters the game for Yves Missi94–96
- Q430.1DaQuan Jeffries out of bounds bad pass turnover94–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:38KJ Simpson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tidjane Salaun assists)CHA 84 – 86 NO · CHA 19% → 35% +16CHA 19% → 35%+16 pts
- Q42:10Nick Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tidjane Salaun assists)CHA 89 – 90 NO · CHA 16% → 39% +24CHA 16% → 39%+24 pts
- Q41:28Keion Brooks Jr. makes dunkCHA 89 – 92 NO · NO 63% → 82% +19NO 63% → 82%+19 pts
- Q440.0Nick Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 94 – 93 NO · CHA 18% → 67% +48CHA 18% → 67%+48 pts
- Q431.1Jose Alvarado makes two point shotCHA 94 – 95 NO · NO 31% → 70% +38NO 31% → 70%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NO -2.5
- ML CHA +115 / NO -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -3.5
- NO 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.3 pts
- NO: Elo 64.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NO -124
- CHA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 105.5 – 108.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1271 | 1369 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −51 | −81 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +104 Elo | NO 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.7 | Points scored | 110.424th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 119.126th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.2 | Margin | −8.729th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.6 | Offense rating | 108.924th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 117.630th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.814th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–29 | Road vs home | 13–2425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–39 | 31–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 34–31 | 23–34 |
| Overs–unders | 28–45 | 41–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–2 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.