Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints23
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds10
Pelicans- Bruce BrownPoints18
- Elfrid PaytonAssists10
- Yves MissiRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–95
- Q48.1Quinten Post makes free throw 2 of 2111–95
- Q48.1Quinten Post makes free throw 1 of 2110–95
- Q48.1Bruce Brown shooting foul109–95
- Q49.1Quinten Post offensive rebound109–95
- Q411.1Kevon Looney misses 21-foot pullup jump shot109–95
- Q414.1Quinten Post vs. Bruce Brown (Kevon Looney gains possession)109–95
- Q432.1Warriors defensive team rebound109–95
- Q436.1Bruce Brown misses 26-foot three point jumper109–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q259.1Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Draymond Green assists)GS 50 – 51 NO · GS 73% → 80% +7GS 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q311:22Brandin Podziemski makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 53 – 53 NO · GS 74% → 81% +7GS 74% → 81%+7 pts
- Q343.0Keion Brooks Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Elfrid Payton assists)GS 81 – 82 NO · NO 20% → 29% +9NO 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q328.1Jonathan Kuminga makes 7-foot pullup jump shotGS 83 – 82 NO · GS 70% → 77% +7GS 70% → 77%+7 pts
- Q411:47Draymond Green makes 5-foot layup (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 85 – 82 NO · GS 77% → 83% +6GS 77% → 83%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- GS -15.5
- ML GS -1600 / NO +800
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -9
- GS 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- GS: Elo 81.1%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- GS -847
- NO +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 121.0 – 105.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | −94 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing CJ McCollum −21 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +253 Elo | GS 81.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 81.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 81.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 110.623rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 119.226th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −8.629th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 109.125th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 117.630th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 100.814th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 13–2325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−94 Elo- CJ McCollum injury/illness−21 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–36 | 31–42 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–26 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 23–33 |
| Overs–unders | 36–36 | 41–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–2 NO in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.