Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints15
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists4
- Gary Payton IIRebounds7
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints27
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–112
- Q417.1Davion Mitchell makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot86–112
- Q439.0Trayce Jackson-Davis makes layup86–109
- Q443.1Gui Santos defensive rebound84–109
- Q446.1Pelle Larsson misses 27-foot three point jumper84–109
- Q41:08Kel'el Ware defensive rebound84–109
- Q41:12Gui Santos misses 23-foot three point shot84–109
- Q41:18Pelle Larsson bad pass (Jonathan Kuminga steals)84–109
- Q41:29Trayce Jackson-Davis makes dunk84–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:21Quinten Post makes 25-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)GS 25 – 28 MIA · GS 46% → 53% +7GS 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q211:03Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)GS 25 – 31 MIA · MIA 47% → 54% +7MIA 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q21:09Alec Burks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)GS 38 – 51 MIA · MIA 69% → 76% +7MIA 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q357.1Jonathan Kuminga makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 70 – 78 MIA · GS 17% → 26% +9GS 17% → 26%+9 pts
- Q38.0Davion Mitchell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)GS 70 – 83 MIA · MIA 81% → 88% +7MIA 81% → 88%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -4.5
- ML GS -185 / MIA +155
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4.5
- GS 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- GS: Elo 67.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -166
- MIA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 106.5 – 102.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 208.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | −16 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +128 Elo | GS 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 109.226th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 110.67th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.4 | Margin | −1.519th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 110.621st of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 112.112th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.8 | Pace | 97.330th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–16 | Road vs home | 16–1922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–35 | 30–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–25 | 16–21 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 14–20 |
| Overs–unders | 36–35 | 37–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 1–2 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.