Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints18
- Miles BridgesAssists5
- Mark WilliamsRebounds12
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints22
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Myles TurnerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–119
- Q411.2Thomas Bryant makes 11-foot two point shot105–119
- Q432.1DaQuan Jeffries makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tidjane Salaun assists)105–117
- Q447.1Andrew Nembhard makes 13-foot step back jumpshot102–117
- Q458.1Mark Williams makes 13-foot jumper (Tidjane Salaun assists)102–115
- Q41:14Andrew Nembhard makes 15-foot step back jumpshot100–115
- Q41:20Tidjane Salaun makes driving layup (KJ Simpson assists)100–113
- Q41:28Johnny Furphy enters the game for Obi Toppin98–113
- Q41:28Andrew Nembhard personal foul98–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:51T.J. McConnell makes driving layupCHA 67 – 70 IND · IND 77% → 82% +5IND 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q34:00Damion Baugh makes 2-foot two point shotCHA 69 – 72 IND · CHA 14% → 18% +4CHA 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q33:35Obi Toppin makes 8-foot two point shot (T.J. McConnell assists)CHA 69 – 74 IND · IND 82% → 86% +4IND 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q32:37Tyrese Haliburton makes 22-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)CHA 71 – 79 IND · IND 86% → 91% +5IND 86% → 91%+5 pts
- Q46:44Ben Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)CHA 89 – 99 IND · IND 92% → 96% +5IND 92% → 96%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- IND -15.5
- ML CHA +600 / IND -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -13.5
- IND 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- IND: Elo 89.7%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- IND -636
- CHA +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 104.0 – 119.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1275 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +20 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +376 Elo | IND 89.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 83.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 84.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.6 | Points scored | 117.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 115.319th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.0 | Margin | +1.813th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.5 | Offense rating | 114.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.111th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–30 | Road vs home | 25–104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–41 | 33–42 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 19–28 |
| Underdog | 34–32 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–47 | 40–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 4–2 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.