Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints31
- DeMar DeRozanAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds16
Pacers- Aaron NesmithPoints24
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Obi ToppinRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–111
- Q40.0(00:00) [Kings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)109–111
- Q40.1Zach LaVine makes 31-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)109–111
- Q44.1Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 2 of 2106–111
- Q44.1Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 1 of 2106–110
- Q44.1Malik Monk personal take foul106–109
- Q46.0Domantas Sabonis makes two point shot106–109
- Q46.1Domantas Sabonis offensive rebound104–109
- Q49.1DeMar DeRozan misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot104–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:11Tyrese Haliburton makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 96 – 95 IND · IND 33% → 46% +13IND 33% → 46%+13 pts
- Q42:50DeMar DeRozan makes 12-foot pullup jump shotSAC 98 – 95 IND · SAC 56% → 72% +16SAC 56% → 72%+16 pts
- Q42:35Tyrese Haliburton makes driving layupSAC 98 – 97 IND · IND 27% → 43% +16IND 27% → 43%+16 pts
- Q41:17Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotSAC 98 – 100 IND · IND 39% → 75% +36IND 39% → 75%+36 pts
- Q436.1Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)SAC 98 – 103 IND · IND 83% → >99% +16IND 83% → >99%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML SAC +140 / IND -170
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.9 pts
- IND: Elo 69.1%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- IND -151
- SAC +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 115.5 – 119.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1582 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | 0 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +140 Elo | IND 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 117.27th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 115.419th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.813th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 114.97th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.113th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 24–105th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–43 | 33–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–28 | 19–27 |
| Underdog | 9–15 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 40–34 | 40–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 1–2 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.