Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints24
- Scoot HendersonAssists6
- Deni AvdijaRebounds9
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints29
- DeMar DeRozanAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–128
- Q47.0shot clock turnover107–128
- Q432.0Justin Minaya makes two point shot (Dalano Banton assists)107–128
- Q435.0Devin Carter bad pass (Dalano Banton steals)105–128
- Q440.1Isaac Jones defensive rebound105–128
- Q444.0Isaac Jones blocks Jabari Walker 's 4-foot driving layup105–128
- Q456.0Isaac Jones makes free throw 2 of 2105–128
- Q456.0Isaac Jones makes free throw 1 of 2105–127
- Q456.0Dalano Banton shooting foul105–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:17Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 3 – 2 SAC · POR 31% → 36% +6POR 31% → 36%+6 pts
- Q18:17Anfernee Simons makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Toumani Camara assists)POR 8 – 6 SAC · POR 33% → 39% +6POR 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q16:52Keegan Murray makes 27-foot three point shot (Keon Ellis assists)POR 8 – 11 SAC · SAC 65% → 71% +6SAC 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q16:01Scoot Henderson makes 27-foot three pointer (Duop Reath assists)POR 11 – 13 SAC · POR 26% → 31% +6POR 26% → 31%+6 pts
- Q125.2Keon Ellis makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)POR 27 – 36 SAC · SAC 76% → 81% +5SAC 76% → 81%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -5.5
- ML POR +180 / SAC -215
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -0.5
- SAC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.4 pts
- SAC: Elo 48.2%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- SAC -191
- POR +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 111.0 – 116.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −8 | POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +12 Elo | POR 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 64.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30111.0 | Points scored | 116.010th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 115.821st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.3 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 114.39th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 114.223rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.5 | Pace | 100.319th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–23 | Road vs home | 18–1921st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+37 Elo- Deandre Ayton did not dress−10 Elo
Kings
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–32 | 30–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 21–28 |
| Underdog | 36–27 | 9–14 |
| Overs–unders | 37–36 | 39–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–3 SAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.