Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints21
- Domantas SabonisAssists4
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints24
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Goga BitadzeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–121
- Q48.1shot clock turnover91–121
- Q434.1Markelle Fultz makes 2-foot two point shot91–121
- Q441.0Trevelin Queen makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot89–121
- Q455.0Isaac Jones makes dunk89–118
- Q456.0Isaac Jones offensive rebound87–118
- Q458.0Isaiah Crawford misses two point shot87–118
- Q41:09Trevelin Queen makes 4-foot two point shot87–118
- Q41:33Isaac Jones makes driving layup (Jae Crowder assists)87–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:19Wendell Carter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)SAC 0 – 3 ORL · ORL 53% → 59% +6ORL 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q14:33Caleb Houstan makes 22-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)SAC 13 – 20 ORL · ORL 62% → 68% +6ORL 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q13:24Paolo Banchero makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotSAC 17 – 26 ORL · ORL 66% → 72% +6ORL 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q12:25Caleb Houstan makes 22-foot three point shot (Anthony Black assists)SAC 19 – 31 ORL · ORL 72% → 78% +6ORL 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q311:02DeMar DeRozan makes 25-foot three pointerSAC 52 – 63 ORL · SAC 13% → 19% +5SAC 13% → 19%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML SAC +105 / ORL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1
- ORL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- ORL: Elo 54.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ORL -114
- SAC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 105.5 – 107.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | −6 | SAC: Usual rotation · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | SAC crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +34 Elo | ORL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 104.930th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 106.01st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.118th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 107.027th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 108.13rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 19–1820th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–42 | 37–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–28 | 23–18 |
| Underdog | 9–14 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders | 40–33 | 31–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–1 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.