Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Jaden HardyPoints22
- Brandon WilliamsAssists6
- Anthony DavisRebounds7
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints35
- Paolo BancheroAssists4
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–92
- Q414.0Franz Wagner makes two point shot101–92
- Q414.0Franz Wagner offensive rebound101–90
- Q415.1Franz Wagner misses two point shot101–90
- Q421.1Dwight Powell enters the game for Anthony Davis101–90
- Q421.1Magic Full timeout101–90
- Q421.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2101–90
- Q421.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2100–90
- Q421.1Paolo Banchero personal foul99–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:32Jaden Hardy makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 70 – 68 ORL · DAL 36% → 48% +11DAL 36% → 48%+11 pts
- Q31:18Jaden Hardy makes 24-foot three pointerDAL 73 – 68 ORL · DAL 48% → 60% +12DAL 48% → 60%+12 pts
- Q312.1Anthony Davis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 77 – 70 ORL · DAL 57% → 69% +12DAL 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q49:20Jaden Hardy makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 82 – 75 ORL · DAL 60% → 73% +13DAL 60% → 73%+13 pts
- Q47:53Max Christie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 85 – 79 ORL · DAL 58% → 72% +14DAL 58% → 72%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML DAL +200 / ORL -245
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -0.5
- ORL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.4 pts
- ORL: Elo 51.6%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- ORL -213
- DAL +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 105.0 – 111.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −4 | DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +11 Elo | ORL 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 105.129th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 106.11st of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.017th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 107.227th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 108.23rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.1 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–22 | Road vs home | 19–1718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+14 Elo- Dereck Lively II right ankle injury−11 Elo
Magic
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–37 | 37–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 23–17 |
| Underdog | 21–21 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders | 40–33 | 31–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–0 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.