Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints38
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists7
- Kai JonesRebounds8
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints35
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists11
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–128
- Q40.1shot clock turnover113–128
- Q424.1Brandon Williams makes two point shot113–128
- Q427.1Pacome Dadiet lost ball turnover (Brandon Williams steals)111–128
- Q438.1Brandon Williams makes free throw 2 of 2111–128
- Q438.1Brandon Williams makes free throw 1 of 2110–128
- Q438.1Kevin McCullar Jr. shooting foul109–128
- Q444.1Kessler Edwards defensive rebound109–128
- Q447.1Kevin McCullar Jr. misses 10-foot two point shot109–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:28Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)DAL 30 – 29 NY · NY 73% → 78% +5NY 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q11:42Brandon Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DAL 33 – 31 NY · DAL 18% → 24% +5DAL 18% → 24%+5 pts
- Q23:04Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 59 – 62 NY · NY 76% → 82% +6NY 76% → 82%+6 pts
- Q246.1Naji Marshall makes 25-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DAL 66 – 66 NY · DAL 18% → 25% +6DAL 18% → 25%+6 pts
- Q38:42Spencer Dinwiddie makes 26-foot three point shot (Klay Thompson assists)DAL 73 – 77 NY · DAL 12% → 17% +5DAL 12% → 17%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NY -11.5
- ML DAL +450 / NY -700
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5.5
- NY 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.0 pts
- NY: Elo 70.8%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -481
- DAL +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 107.5 – 119.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −61 | −43 | DAL: Missing Daniel Gafford −24, Dereck Lively II −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +154 Elo | NY 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 83.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 82.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 116.49th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 112.213th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +4.27th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 112.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.1 | Pace | 98.826th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–21 | Road vs home | 23–118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−61 Elo- Daniel Gafford right knee sprain−24 Elo
- Dereck Lively II right ankle injury−18 Elo
Knicks
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–36 | 32–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 28–30 |
| Underdog | 21–20 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 39–33 | 37–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–0 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.