Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Isaiah CollierPoints22
- Isaiah CollierAssists10
- Walker KesslerRebounds12
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints22
- Alperen SengunAssists9
- Alperen SengunRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–143
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–143
- Q418.1Reed Sheppard defensive rebound105–143
- Q420.1Isaiah Collier misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot105–143
- Q427.0Reed Sheppard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot105–143
- Q446.0KJ Martin makes free throw 1 of 1105–140
- Q446.0Jeff Green shooting foul104–140
- Q446.0KJ Martin makes layup (Isaiah Collier assists)104–140
- Q452.1Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound102–140
- Q454.1Jae'Sean Tate misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot102–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:59Isaiah Collier makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 11 – 11 HOU · UTAH 9% → 12% +3UTAH 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q16:01Collin Sexton makes 14-foot pullup jump shotUTAH 17 – 13 HOU · UTAH 14% → 17% +3UTAH 14% → 17%+3 pts
- Q14:12Johnny Juzang makes 3-foot two point shot (KJ Martin assists)UTAH 20 – 16 HOU · UTAH 15% → 18% +3UTAH 15% → 18%+3 pts
- Q13:56Jalen Green makes driving layup (Jock Landale assists)UTAH 20 – 18 HOU · HOU 82% → 85% +3HOU 82% → 85%+3 pts
- Q12:32Jalen Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)UTAH 20 – 23 HOU · HOU 87% → 90% +3HOU 87% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -15.5
- ML UTAH +800 / HOU -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -11.5
- HOU 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 86.0%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -847
- UTAH +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 106.0 – 121.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1329 | 1582 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | +28 | UTAH: Missing John Collins −28, Jordan Clarkson −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · HOU: Missing Fred VanVleet −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | HOU crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +316 Elo | HOU 86.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 86.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 86.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.5 | Points scored | 114.017th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 109.15th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.5 | Margin | +4.94th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 112.518th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 107.72nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30101.9 | Pace | 100.716th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 307–30 | Road vs home | 27–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−23 Elo- John Collins sprained left ankle−28 Elo
- Jordan Clarkson plantar fasciitis left foot−3 Elo
Rockets
+28 Elo- Fred VanVleet sore right ankle−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–37 | 40–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 29–26 |
| Underdog | 37–35 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 43–33 | 40–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–4 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.