Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints33
- Amen ThompsonAssists9
- Amen ThompsonRebounds10
Suns- Devin BookerPoints28
- Collin GillespieAssists4
- Kevin DurantRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game148–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter148–109
- Q415.0shot clock turnover148–109
- Q437.0Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound148–109
- Q440.1Bol Bol misses 22-foot three point pullup jump shot148–109
- Q447.1Cam Whitmore bad pass (Damion Lee steals)148–109
- Q447.1Monte Morris bad pass (Reed Sheppard steals)148–109
- Q453.1Mason Plumlee defensive rebound148–109
- Q456.1Cam Whitmore misses 21-foot step back jumpshot148–109
- Q41:12Monte Morris makes 12-foot pullup jump shot148–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:52Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point shot (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 3 – 2 PHX · HOU 53% → 59% +6HOU 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q19:50Devin Booker makes 24-foot three pointerHOU 7 – 5 PHX · PHX 33% → 39% +6PHX 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q16:21Collin Gillespie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 13 – 14 PHX · PHX 39% → 46% +7PHX 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q15:17Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)HOU 16 – 16 PHX · HOU 50% → 57% +7HOU 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q14.1Aaron Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 32 – 24 PHX · HOU 68% → 74% +6HOU 68% → 74%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML HOU -145 / PHX +125
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -133
- PHX +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 111.5 – 109.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −26 | HOU: Missing Tari Eason −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +84 Elo | HOU 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 114.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 116.022nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.6 | Margin | −1.620th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 114.88th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 116.527th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.6 | Pace | 98.725th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–14 | Road vs home | 23–1411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+18 Elo- Tari Eason lower leg−13 Elo
Suns
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–35 | 30–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–26 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 12–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–35 | 38–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–2 PHX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.