Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints20
- Fred VanVleetAssists9
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds11
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints20
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- LeBron JamesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–104
- Q41.0Rockets offensive team rebound98–104
- Q41.1Fred VanVleet misses 44-foot three point pullup jump shot98–104
- Q43.0Dorian Finney-Smith makes free throw 2 of 298–104
- Q43.0Dorian Finney-Smith makes free throw 1 of 298–103
- Q43.0Alperen Sengun personal foul98–102
- Q43.0Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound98–102
- Q44.1Dillon Brooks misses 23-foot three point jumper98–102
- Q48.0Rockets offensive team rebound98–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:35Amen Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 84 – 86 LAL · HOU 23% → 35% +12HOU 23% → 35%+12 pts
- Q49:21Gabe Vincent makes 25-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)HOU 84 – 89 LAL · LAL 65% → 77% +12LAL 65% → 77%+12 pts
- Q48:46Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 87 – 89 LAL · HOU 23% → 35% +12HOU 23% → 35%+12 pts
- Q42:42Luka Doncic makes driving layupHOU 93 – 98 LAL · LAL 77% → 88% +11LAL 77% → 88%+11 pts
- Q42:06Rui Hachimura makes 2-foot dunk (LeBron James assists)HOU 95 – 100 LAL · LAL 79% → 91% +11LAL 79% → 91%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -4.5
- ML HOU +160 / LAL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1.5
- LAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 56.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAL -170
- HOU +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 111.0 – 115.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +35 | +40 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +47 Elo | LAL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 113.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 112.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +0.814th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 113.411th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–14 | Road vs home | 28–93rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–35 | 42–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–26 | 23–20 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 40–35 | 37–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.