Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints31
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints29
- Ja MorantAssists10
- Zach EdeyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–127
- Q46.0Santi Aldama lost ball turnover (Gabe Vincent steals)134–127
- Q49.1LeBron James personal take foul134–127
- Q49.1Ja Morant defensive rebound134–127
- Q411.1Luka Doncic misses free throw 2 of 2134–127
- Q411.1Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2134–127
- Q411.1Desmond Bane personal take foul133–127
- Q420.1Desmond Bane makes 2-foot two point shot133–127
- Q425.1Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2133–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:58Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 107 – 105 MEM · LAL 45% → 59% +14LAL 45% → 59%+14 pts
- Q46:22Luka Doncic makes 15-foot pullup jump shotLAL 115 – 113 MEM · LAL 50% → 61% +11LAL 50% → 61%+11 pts
- Q45:48Dorian Finney-Smith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 118 – 113 MEM · LAL 62% → 77% +16LAL 62% → 77%+16 pts
- Q44:08Jaxson Hayes makes alley oop dunk shot (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 120 – 115 MEM · LAL 70% → 81% +11LAL 70% → 81%+11 pts
- Q43:49Jaylen Wells makes 12-foot step back jumpshot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)LAL 120 – 117 MEM · MEM 18% → 29% +11MEM 18% → 29%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -1.5
- ML LAL -110 / MEM -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -0.5
- MEM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- MEM: Elo 48.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MEM -100
- LAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 118.0 – 119.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | +20 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +12 Elo | LAL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 122.12nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 116.925th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 115.46th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 110.49th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.5 | Pace | 105.71st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 15th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 25–116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–32 | 38–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–20 | 28–20 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders | 36–37 | 43–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 5–2 MEM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.