Los Angeles Lakers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints30
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints26
- Josh GiddeyAssists11
- Josh GiddeyRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–119
- Q40.0(00:00) [Lakers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)117–119
- Q40.0Josh Giddey makes 46-foot driving floating jump shot (Patrick Williams assists)117–119
- Q43.1Austin Reaves makes driving layup (Luka Doncic assists)117–116
- Q46.0Gabe Vincent enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt115–116
- Q46.0Lakers Full timeout115–116
- Q46.0Coby White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)115–116
- Q47.1LeBron James bad pass (Josh Giddey steals)115–113
- Q410.1Patrick Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)115–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q446.0Kevin Huerter makes 29-foot three pointer (Josh Giddey assists)LAL 111 – 110 CHI · CHI 5% → 33% +28CHI 5% → 33%+28 pts
- Q426.1Austin Reaves makes 8-foot two point shotLAL 113 – 110 CHI · LAL 72% → 95% +24LAL 72% → 95%+24 pts
- Q46.0Coby White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)LAL 115 – 116 CHI · CHI 1% → 87% +86CHI 1% → 87%+86 pts
- Q43.1Austin Reaves makes driving layup (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 117 – 116 CHI · LAL 6% → 94% +89LAL 6% → 94%+89 pts
- Q40.0Josh Giddey makes 46-foot driving floating jump shot (Patrick Williams assists)LAL 117 – 119 CHI · CHI 0% → 100% +100CHI 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -3.5
- ML LAL -165 / CHI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- LAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 50.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAL -149
- CHI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 120.0 – 116.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +41 | +15 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL 0 Elo | LAL 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 63.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 117.36th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 119.728th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −2.422nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 111.919th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 114.223rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.4 | Pace | 104.43rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 13–2224th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–31 | 38–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 23–19 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 30–25 |
| Overs–unders | 36–36 | 37–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 1–2 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.