Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints33
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints36
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists6
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–118
- Q421.0Vlatko Cancar bad pass (Gui Santos steals)104–118
- Q437.1Kevin Knox II lost ball turnover (Hunter Tyson steals)104–118
- Q454.1Vlatko Cancar enters the game for Aaron Gordon104–118
- Q454.1Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Nikola Jokic104–118
- Q454.1Trey Alexander enters the game for Peyton Watson104–118
- Q454.1Hunter Tyson enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.104–118
- Q454.1Julian Strawther enters the game for Christian Braun104–118
- Q454.1Kevin Knox II enters the game for Kevon Looney104–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:59Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 56 – 55 GS · DEN 38% → 46% +8DEN 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q21:46Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three pointer (Brandin Podziemski assists)DEN 58 – 60 GS · GS 54% → 62% +8GS 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q35:57Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 77 – 79 GS · DEN 29% → 38% +9DEN 29% → 38%+9 pts
- Q35:38Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Draymond Green assists)DEN 77 – 82 GS · GS 62% → 71% +9GS 62% → 71%+9 pts
- Q34:33Stephen Curry makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 79 – 87 GS · GS 72% → 80% +8GS 72% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML DEN +135 / GS -155
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1
- GS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- GS: Elo 54.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- GS -143
- DEN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 117.0 – 120.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −15 | +46 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +34 Elo | GS 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 61.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.9 | Points scored | 113.818th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 110.98th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.0 | Margin | +2.910th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 110.17th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.617th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–16 | Road vs home | 23–1412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–42 | 40–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–33 | 25–26 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 45–32 | 39–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–0 GS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.