Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints52
- Draymond GreenAssists12
- Stephen CurryRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–125
- Q47.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2134–125
- Q47.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2133–125
- Q47.1
Zach Edey personal take foul132–125 - Q412.1Desmond Bane traveling132–125
- Q412.1Santi Aldama offensive rebound132–125
- Q416.1Luke Kennard misses 22-foot three point step back jumpshot132–125
- Q420.1Santi Aldama enters the game for Scotty Pippen Jr.132–125
- Q420.1Luke Kennard enters the game for Jaylen Wells132–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:13Buddy Hield makes 24-foot three pointer (Kevon Looney assists)GS 116 – 112 MEM · GS 59% → 76% +17GS 59% → 76%+17 pts
- Q44:56Desmond Bane makes 24-foot three pointerGS 116 – 115 MEM · MEM 24% → 41% +17MEM 24% → 41%+17 pts
- Q44:12Santi Aldama makes 24-foot three pointer (Desmond Bane assists)GS 116 – 118 MEM · MEM 41% → 62% +21MEM 41% → 62%+21 pts
- Q42:55Stephen Curry makes 22-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 121 – 120 MEM · GS 35% → 60% +25GS 35% → 60%+25 pts
- Q42:36Jaren Jackson Jr. makes driving layup (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)GS 121 – 122 MEM · MEM 40% → 57% +18MEM 40% → 57%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML GS -145 / MEM +125
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- GS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- GS: Elo 56.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -133
- MEM +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 121.0 – 117.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +40 | +40 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +45 Elo | GS 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 121.92nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 117.125th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +4.95th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 115.26th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 110.710th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 105.71st of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 9th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 25–1310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–36 | 38–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 24–26 | 28–21 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–37 | 44–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–2 MEM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.