Boston Celtics at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Al HorfordPoints26
- Derrick WhiteAssists10
- Jayson TatumRebounds14
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints26
- Ja MorantAssists5
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–103
- Q415.1Sam Hauser enters the game for Al Horford117–103
- Q415.1shot clock turnover117–103
- Q437.1Derrick White defensive rebound117–103
- Q441.1Cam Spencer misses running pullup jump shot117–103
- Q446.0John Konchar defensive rebound117–103
- Q449.1Jayson Tatum misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot117–103
- Q41:08Payton Pritchard enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis117–103
- Q41:08John Konchar enters the game for Scotty Pippen Jr.117–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:36Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point shot (Desmond Bane assists)BOS 66 – 71 MEM · MEM 49% → 59% +9MEM 49% → 59%+9 pts
- Q39:07Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotBOS 69 – 71 MEM · BOS 41% → 51% +9BOS 41% → 51%+9 pts
- Q37:42Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 72 – 73 MEM · BOS 44% → 53% +10BOS 44% → 53%+10 pts
- Q410:47Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BOS 95 – 87 MEM · BOS 75% → 84% +9BOS 75% → 84%+9 pts
- Q410:36Santi Aldama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)BOS 95 – 90 MEM · MEM 16% → 25% +9MEM 16% → 25%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -2.5
- ML BOS -170 / MEM +140
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5.5
- BOS 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 70.3%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -151
- MEM +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 119.0 – 116.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1726 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +23 | BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −16, Luke Kornet −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +150 Elo | BOS 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 122.22nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.8 | Points allowed | 117.125th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.1 | Margin | +5.14th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 115.56th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 110.69th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.1 | Pace | 105.71st of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3031–7 | Road vs home | 25–127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−6 Elo- Jaylen Brown right knee injury−16 Elo
- Luke Kornet illness−9 Elo
Grizzlies
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–39 | 38–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 34–37 | 28–21 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40 | 44–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.