Boston Celtics at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints29
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Luke KornetRebounds16
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints23
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Jeremy SochanRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–111
- Q42.0shot clock turnover121–111
- Q426.1Jeremy Sochan makes free throw 2 of 2121–111
- Q426.1Jeremy Sochan makes free throw 1 of 2121–110
- Q426.1Jrue Holiday personal foul121–109
- Q429.0Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound121–109
- Q432.0Derrick White misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot121–109
- Q452.1Jayson Tatum defensive rebound121–109
- Q454.1Chris Paul misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot121–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:07Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 52 – 45 SA · BOS 85% → 89% +4BOS 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q47:29Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)BOS 103 – 95 SA · SA 3% → 7% +4SA 3% → 7%+4 pts
- Q47:11Derrick White makes 25-foot three pointer (Luke Kornet assists)BOS 106 – 95 SA · BOS 93% → 97% +4BOS 93% → 97%+4 pts
- Q45:44Chris Paul makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Devin Vassell assists)BOS 108 – 101 SA · SA 3% → 8% +5SA 3% → 8%+5 pts
- Q45:23Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 111 – 101 SA · BOS 92% → 97% +5BOS 92% → 97%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -12.5
- ML BOS -800 / SA +500
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10
- BOS 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 83.5%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -533
- SA +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 121.5 – 109.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1724 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −27 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +281 Elo | BOS 83.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 85.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 85.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 114.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 116.323rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.1 | Margin | −2.021st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 114.725th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.1 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–7 | Road vs home | 19–1617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–38 | 33–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–36 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 21–27 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40 | 41–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–0 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.