Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints27
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists8
- Kevon LooneyRebounds7
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints19
- Sandro MamukelashviliAssists4
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game148–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter148–106
- Q47.0Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound148–106
- Q49.1Trayce Jackson-Davis misses 22-foot three point jumper148–106
- Q429.0Kevin Knox II defensive rebound148–106
- Q431.1Malaki Branham misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot148–106
- Q438.1Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound148–106
- Q441.2Pat Spencer misses 25-foot three point jumper148–106
- Q451.2Quinten Post defensive rebound148–106
- Q454.1Malaki Branham misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot148–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:46Jimmy Butler III makes 2-foot dunk (Draymond Green assists)GS 2 – 0 SA · GS 82% → 85% +3GS 82% → 85%+3 pts
- Q111:10Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)GS 5 – 0 SA · GS 84% → 88% +3GS 84% → 88%+3 pts
- Q19:27Chris Paul makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)GS 7 – 5 SA · SA 12% → 16% +4SA 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q19:19Brandin Podziemski makes two point shotGS 9 – 5 SA · GS 84% → 87% +2GS 84% → 87%+2 pts
- Q15:08Julian Champagnie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)GS 28 – 19 SA · SA 6% → 9% +2SA 6% → 9%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- GS -11.5
- ML GS -650 / SA +425
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -6
- GS 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- GS: Elo 72.5%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- GS -455
- SA +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 121.5 – 110.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +43 | −24 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +168 Elo | GS 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 82.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 81.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 114.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 116.423rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −2.121st of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 114.825th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.5 | Pace | 101.113th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 3019–17 | Road vs home | 19–1717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–36 | 34–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 22–27 |
| Overs–unders | 36–37 | 42–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–2 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.