Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints37
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Draymond GreenRebounds11
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints33
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–116
- Q48.2Jonathan Kuminga defensive rebound123–116
- Q410.1Austin Reaves misses 35-foot three point jumper123–116
- Q415.0Lakers Full timeout123–116
- Q415.0Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2123–116
- Q415.0Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2122–116
- Q415.0Austin Reaves personal take foul121–116
- Q415.0Dorian Finney-Smith bad pass (Jimmy Butler III steals)121–116
- Q415.0Rui Hachimura offensive rebound121–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:39Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 88 – 80 LAL · LAL 12% → 20% +8LAL 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q410:38Jimmy Butler III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Quinten Post assists)GS 91 – 80 LAL · GS 81% → 89% +8GS 81% → 89%+8 pts
- Q45:23Austin Reaves makes 22-foot three point shot (Luka Doncic assists)GS 105 – 98 LAL · LAL 6% → 14% +8LAL 6% → 14%+8 pts
- Q44:37Luka Doncic makes 14-foot jumperGS 105 – 100 LAL · LAL 12% → 20% +8LAL 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q44:21Stephen Curry makes driving layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 107 – 100 LAL · GS 81% → 89% +8GS 81% → 89%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -0.5
- ML GS -110 / LAL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1.5
- LAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- LAL: Elo 56.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAL -100
- GS -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 115.0 – 115.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | +47 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +43 Elo | LAL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 52.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 113.119th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 112.212th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +0.814th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 113.213th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 112.413th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.621st of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 8th of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 29–93rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–36 | 43–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–26 | 24–20 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 38–37 | 37–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–4 LAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.