San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Harrison BarnesPoints20
- Stephon CastleAssists9
- Stephon CastleRebounds15
Nuggets- Russell WestbrookPoints30
- Jalen PickettAssists10
- DeAndre JordanRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–106
- Q412.0Hunter Tyson makes free throw 1 of 1113–106
- Q412.0Chris Paul shooting foul113–105
- Q412.0Hunter Tyson makes two point shot113–105
- Q415.2Stephon Castle makes 3-foot dunk (Chris Paul assists)113–103
- Q423.1DeAndre Jordan makes 2-foot dunk (Jalen Pickett assists)111–103
- Q433.1Julian Champagnie makes 2-foot dunk (Chris Paul assists)111–101
- Q441.1Chris Paul defensive rebound109–101
- Q444.1Hunter Tyson misses 28-foot three point jumper109–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:00Vlatko Cancar makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)SA 88 – 93 DEN · DEN 61% → 73% +12DEN 61% → 73%+12 pts
- Q48:19Jordan McLaughlin makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Chris Paul assists)SA 95 – 93 DEN · SA 43% → 58% +15SA 43% → 58%+15 pts
- Q47:41Chris Paul makes 26-foot three pointerSA 98 – 95 DEN · SA 48% → 64% +15SA 48% → 64%+15 pts
- Q47:11Chris Paul makes 27-foot three pointerSA 101 – 95 DEN · SA 64% → 78% +14SA 64% → 78%+14 pts
- Q44:24Blake Wesley makes two point shot (Harrison Barnes assists)SA 103 – 99 DEN · SA 62% → 74% +12SA 62% → 74%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML SA +110 / DEN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- DEN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 59.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -119
- SA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 113.5 – 116.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DEN and SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −40 | −198 | SA: Missing Keldon Johnson −5, Devin Vassell −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +66 Elo | DEN 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 62.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 121.13rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 117.024th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.8 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 118.03rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 114.022nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–24 | Road vs home | 25–138th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−40 Elo- Keldon Johnson lower back tightness−5 Elo
- Devin Vassell left ankle sprain - injury management−4 Elo
Nuggets
−198 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–41 | 35–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 24–32 |
| Underdog | 22–29 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 44–31 | 45–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–4 DEN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.