Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints24
- Franz WagnerAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Spurs- Harrison BarnesPoints24
- Chris PaulAssists7
- Stephon CastleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–105
- Q48.0Julian Champagnie makes dunk (Malaki Branham assists)116–105
- Q412.0shot clock turnover116–103
- Q436.0Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound116–103
- Q439.0Julian Champagnie misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot116–103
- Q454.2Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 1116–103
- Q454.2Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Harrison Barnes115–103
- Q454.2Malaki Branham enters the game for Devin Vassell115–103
- Q454.2Blake Wesley enters the game for Stephon Castle115–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q323.1Caleb Houstan makes 27-foot three point shot (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 79 – 84 SA · ORL 27% → 38% +11ORL 27% → 38%+11 pts
- Q411:42Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)ORL 79 – 87 SA · SA 63% → 74% +11SA 63% → 74%+11 pts
- Q49:26Caleb Houstan makes 27-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 86 – 89 SA · ORL 30% → 43% +13ORL 30% → 43%+13 pts
- Q46:51Paolo Banchero makes two point shotORL 93 – 93 SA · ORL 45% → 56% +11ORL 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q45:48Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 27-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 98 – 93 SA · ORL 67% → 81% +14ORL 67% → 81%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -5.5
- ML ORL -220 / SA +180
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -0.5
- ORL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.2 pts
- ORL: Elo 51.6%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- ORL -192
- SA +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.0 – 105.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +1 | −29 | ORL: Usual rotation · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +11 Elo | ORL 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 59.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.9 | Points scored | 114.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.7 | Points allowed | 116.824th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −2.621st of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.0 | Offense rating | 112.616th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 115.225th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.7 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 19–1818th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–38 | 34–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–18 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 14–20 | 22–28 |
| Overs–unders | 31–45 | 43–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–0 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.