LA Clippers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints21
- James HardenAssists5
- Ivica ZubacRebounds20
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints26
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–87
- Q414.0Kris Dunn defensive rebound96–87
- Q417.1Franz Wagner misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot96–87
- Q425.1Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 2 of 296–87
- Q425.1Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 295–87
- Q425.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope personal foul94–87
- Q429.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot three point shot (Cory Joseph assists)94–87
- Q431.1Derrick Jones Jr. enters the game for Ivica Zubac94–84
- Q431.1Magic Full timeout94–84
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:47Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three pointer (Gary Harris assists)LAC 58 – 58 ORL · ORL 35% → 45% +10ORL 35% → 45%+10 pts
- Q32:20James Harden makes 28-foot three pointerLAC 65 – 60 ORL · LAC 62% → 72% +10LAC 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q410:43Derrick Jones Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 74 – 68 ORL · LAC 67% → 78% +11LAC 67% → 78%+11 pts
- Q46:45Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotLAC 83 – 75 ORL · LAC 78% → 88% +10LAC 78% → 88%+10 pts
- Q43:25Norman Powell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 88 – 80 ORL · LAC 85% → 95% +10LAC 85% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3.5
- ML LAC -155 / ORL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4
- LAC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 65.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -140
- ORL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 107.5 – 104.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +88 | 0 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +108 Elo | LAC 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 105.129th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.7 | Points allowed | 105.81st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.7 | Margin | −0.718th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 107.227th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 107.93rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.2 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 16th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 20–1818th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+88 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–32 | 38–37 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–17 | 24–18 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders | 36–38 | 31–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–0 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.