LA Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints34
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds13
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints25
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–127
- Q48.1James Harden bad pass (Donovan Mitchell steals)122–127
- Q413.1Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2122–127
- Q413.1Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2122–126
- Q413.1Nicolas Batum personal foul122–125
- Q414.2Cavaliers Full timeout122–125
- Q419.0James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2122–125
- Q419.0James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2121–125
- Q419.0De'Andre Hunter shooting foul120–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:56James Harden makes 30-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)LAC 5 – 3 CLE · LAC 28% → 33% +6LAC 28% → 33%+6 pts
- Q311:36Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)LAC 67 – 71 CLE · CLE 68% → 75% +8CLE 68% → 75%+8 pts
- Q310:54Kris Dunn makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 70 – 73 CLE · LAC 20% → 27% +7LAC 20% → 27%+7 pts
- Q39:42James Harden makes two point shotLAC 74 – 75 CLE · LAC 27% → 33% +5LAC 27% → 33%+5 pts
- Q39:09Donovan Mitchell makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotLAC 74 – 77 CLE · CLE 67% → 73% +5CLE 67% → 73%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -6.5
- ML LAC +230 / CLE -280
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4
- CLE 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 65.0%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -243
- LAC +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.5 – 118.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1655 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +7 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +108 Elo | CLE 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 66.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 122.31st of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 112.211th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.8 | Margin | +10.12nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 120.11st of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 110.28th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 14th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 31–52nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–32 | 45–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–17 | 41–27 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 35–38 | 48–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.