LA Clippers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints29
- Kawhi LeonardAssists7
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds10
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints34
- Mikal BridgesAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–113
- Q413.0Derrick Jones Jr. defensive rebound126–113
- Q416.0MarJon Beauchamp misses 22-foot step back jumpshot126–113
- Q424.0Kris Dunn makes driving layup126–113
- Q445.0Derrick Jones Jr. enters the game for Norman Powell124–113
- Q445.0Kobe Brown enters the game for James Harden124–113
- Q445.0Drew Eubanks enters the game for Ivica Zubac124–113
- Q445.0Patty Mills enters the game for Kawhi Leonard124–113
- Q445.0MarJon Beauchamp enters the game for OG Anunoby124–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:26Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 76 – 76 NY · LAC 46% → 56% +11LAC 46% → 56%+11 pts
- Q32:19James Harden makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 83 – 81 NY · LAC 52% → 63% +11LAC 52% → 63%+11 pts
- Q31:52James Harden makes 26-foot three point shot (Ben Simmons assists)LAC 86 – 81 NY · LAC 63% → 74% +10LAC 63% → 74%+10 pts
- Q31:35Landry Shamet makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)LAC 86 – 84 NY · NY 26% → 37% +10NY 26% → 37%+10 pts
- Q31:06James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 89 – 84 NY · LAC 63% → 74% +11LAC 63% → 74%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -4.5
- ML LAC -170 / NY +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 61.2%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -154
- NY +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.5 – 107.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +63 | −32 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAC crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +79 Elo | LAC 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.8 | Points scored | 116.59th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.5 | Points allowed | 112.213th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +4.36th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 116.75th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 112.414th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 98.825th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 24–118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–32 | 33–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–17 | 29–30 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38 | 38–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–1 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.