LA Clippers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints31
- Bogdan BogdanovicAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Nets- Keon JohnsonPoints13
- Cameron JohnsonAssists6
- Drew TimmeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–100
- Q44.1shot clock turnover132–100
- Q426.1Drew Eubanks defensive rebound132–100
- Q430.0Tosan Evbuomwan misses 24-foot three point jumper132–100
- Q441.1Patty Mills makes free throw 3 of 3132–100
- Q441.1Patty Mills makes free throw 2 of 3131–100
- Q441.1Patty Mills makes free throw 1 of 3130–100
- Q441.1Tyson Etienne shooting foul129–100
- Q41:02Tyson Etienne makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tosan Evbuomwan assists)129–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:22D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)LAC 6 – 12 BKN · BKN 21% → 26% +5BKN 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q123.1Nicolas Batum makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)LAC 26 – 27 BKN · LAC 74% → 79% +6LAC 74% → 79%+6 pts
- Q210:16Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)LAC 32 – 31 BKN · LAC 77% → 82% +5LAC 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q28:07Keon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)LAC 37 – 37 BKN · BKN 16% → 21% +5BKN 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q27:49Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)LAC 40 – 37 BKN · LAC 79% → 84% +5LAC 79% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -12.5
- ML LAC -800 / BKN +500
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -10.5
- LAC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 84.7%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- LAC -533
- BKN +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 113.0 – 100.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1337 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +69 | −21 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +297 Elo | LAC 84.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 84.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 84.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 105.029th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.5 | Points allowed | 111.69th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.4 | Margin | −6.626th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 106.928th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 113.620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.0 | Pace | 97.629th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 11–2427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–32 | 40–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–17 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 36–26 |
| Overs–unders | 34–38 | 31–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–1 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.