Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints26
- Darius GarlandAssists13
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints27
- Mikal BridgesAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–102
- Q414.1Jalen Brunson bad pass (Isaac Okoro steals)108–102
- Q424.0Evan Mobley makes free throw 2 of 2108–102
- Q424.0Evan Mobley makes free throw 1 of 2107–102
- Q424.0Jalen Brunson personal take foul106–102
- Q426.1Max Strus defensive rebound106–102
- Q428.0OG Anunoby misses two point shot106–102
- Q433.1Max Strus bad pass (OG Anunoby steals)106–102
- Q435.1Cavaliers Full timeout106–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:15Josh Hart makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)CLE 94 – 95 NY · NY 40% → 59% +19NY 40% → 59%+19 pts
- Q45:04Darius Garland makes 27-foot three pointerCLE 97 – 95 NY · CLE 41% → 60% +19CLE 41% → 60%+19 pts
- Q43:14Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 101 – 98 NY · CLE 48% → 71% +23CLE 48% → 71%+23 pts
- Q42:30Jalen Brunson makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (OG Anunoby assists)CLE 101 – 100 NY · NY 26% → 43% +17NY 26% → 43%+17 pts
- Q42:13Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 104 – 100 NY · CLE 58% → 82% +24CLE 58% → 82%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -3.5
- ML CLE +135 / NY -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -0.5
- NY 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- NY: Elo 48.3%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -143
- CLE +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 109.5 – 113.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1656 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NY and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −65 | −29 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +12 Elo | CLE 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.2 | Points scored | 116.010th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 111.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.8 | Margin | +4.28th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.0 | Offense rating | 116.55th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 112.313th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3029–11 | Road vs home | 27–137th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 48–32 | 39–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 43–30 | 33–30 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders | 50–30 | 41–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–2 NY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.