Phoenix Suns at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints40
- Collin GillespieAssists4
- Ryan DunnRebounds8
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints32
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–112
- Q412.1Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound98–112
- Q415.1Bradley Beal misses 26-foot three point jumper98–112
- Q424.2Josh Hart makes layup (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)98–112
- Q433.1Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound98–110
- Q436.2Tyus Jones misses 24-foot three point jumper98–110
- Q440.1OG Anunoby makes 1-foot dunk (Mikal Bridges assists)98–110
- Q443.0Grayson Allen bad pass (Josh Hart steals)98–108
- Q453.1Josh Hart makes free throw 2 of 298–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:49OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)PHX 13 – 15 NY · NY 73% → 78% +5NY 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q13:14Miles McBride makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)PHX 19 – 20 NY · NY 70% → 76% +6NY 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q141.1Miles McBride makes 23-foot three point shot (Cameron Payne assists)PHX 21 – 25 NY · NY 75% → 81% +5NY 75% → 81%+5 pts
- Q45:51Bradley Beal makes 1-foot two point shotPHX 87 – 93 NY · PHX 7% → 13% +5PHX 7% → 13%+5 pts
- Q43:22Mikal Bridges makes 4-foot jumper (OG Anunoby assists)PHX 92 – 99 NY · NY 88% → 94% +6NY 88% → 94%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- NY -9.5
- ML PHX +300 / NY -400
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7.5
- NY 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- NY: Elo 76.4%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -320
- PHX +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 108.0 – 117.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −81 | +13 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +204 Elo | NY 76.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 74.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 75.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 116.29th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 111.99th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.5 | Margin | +4.38th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 112.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.7 | Pace | 98.626th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–27 | Road vs home | 26–127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–47 | 37–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 32–30 |
| Underdog | 12–22 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders | 40–37 | 40–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 1–2 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.