New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints31
- Josh HartAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds14
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints30
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–107
- Q44.1Tyler Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)116–107
- Q48.1Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Giannis Antetokounmpo116–104
- Q48.1shot clock turnover116–104
- Q432.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 1116–104
- Q432.1Tyler Smith enters the game for Brook Lopez116–103
- Q432.1OG Anunoby shooting foul116–103
- Q432.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot dunk116–103
- Q432.1Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound116–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:37Ryan Rollins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)NY 20 – 16 MIL · MIL 35% → 42% +7MIL 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q210:50Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point shot (Tyler Kolek assists)NY 30 – 21 MIL · NY 63% → 70% +7NY 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q37:30Ryan Rollins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)NY 64 – 58 MIL · MIL 24% → 32% +8MIL 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q35:45Kyle Kuzma makes 22-foot three point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)NY 67 – 65 MIL · MIL 34% → 44% +10MIL 34% → 44%+10 pts
- Q35:26Karl-Anthony Towns makes driving layupNY 69 – 65 MIL · NY 56% → 63% +7NY 56% → 63%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -1.5
- ML NY -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2.5
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- NY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 108.5 – 110.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | −19 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +74 Elo | MIL 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 114.215th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 111.89th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +2.311th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 113.113th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 110.811th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.7 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 23–1211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–39 | 38–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–30 | 25–24 |
| Underdog | 4–9 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 39–33 | 35–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–3 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.