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Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

FinalMSG, NBC Sports Phil

Away

76ers

23-53

91–105

at

Home

Knicks

48-27

PHI 14%NY 86%

You didn't pick this one.

Madison Square Garden · MSG, NBC Sports Phil

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.

NY favored PHI favored108 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4NY50%PHI

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

76ers
Knicks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game91–105
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–105
  • Q417.0Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound91–105
  • Q420.0Phillip Wheeler misses 25-foot three point jumper91–105
  • Q429.1Jared Butler defensive rebound91–105
  • Q431.1Tyler Kolek misses driving layup91–105
  • Q447.0Landry Shamet defensive rebound91–105
  • Q450.0Marcus Bagley misses free throw 2 of 291–105
  • Q450.0Marcus Bagley makes free throw 1 of 291–105
  • Q450.0Kevin McCullar Jr. shooting foul90–105

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q32:56Landry Shamet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)PHI 62 – 70 NY · NY 86% → 91% +5
  2. Q32:28Quentin Grimes makes dunkPHI 65 – 70 NY · PHI 10% → 14% +4
  3. Q32:12Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)PHI 65 – 73 NY · NY 86% → 91% +5
  4. Q31:32Landry Shamet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)PHI 67 – 78 NY · NY 91% → 95% +4
  5. Q353.0Alex Reese makes 25-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)PHI 70 – 78 NY · PHI 5% → 9% +4

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Knicks 86%

StrongHit
PHI 14%NY 86%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.

Market
NY -12.5
ML PHI +600 / NY -900
Pre-line forecast
NY 83%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -9
NY 81%
Ratings vs. market
−5.0 pts
NY: Elo 81.3%, market 86.3%
Fair odds
NY -630
PHI +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
PHI 103.5 – 116.0 NY
Posted spread, posted total 219.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHINYWhy
Team rating13271569Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−71−94PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Karl-Anthony Towns −63 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsNY +255 EloNY 81.3%
Market-implied ratingsNY 83.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 83.5%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNY 86.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatNY
25th of 30109.8Points scored116.49th of 30
21st of 30115.8Points allowed112.110th of 30
25th of 30−6.0Margin+4.37th of 30
22nd of 30110.1Offense rating116.85th of 30
26th of 30116.2Defense rating112.514th of 30
24th of 3098.9Pace98.626th of 30
29th of 301–9Last 106–48th of 30
26th of 3011–27Road vs home25–127th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

76ers

−71 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Knicks

−94 Elo
  • Karl-Anthony Towns left knee soreness−63 Elo

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

76ersKnicks
13501450155016501750league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHINY
Against the spread26–4935–39
Last 103–76–4
Favorite6–1930–30
Underdog20–305–9
Overs–unders45–3040–34
Overs–unders, last 107–34–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 3–10 NY in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.