Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints30
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Kel'el WareRebounds14
76ers- Jared ButlerPoints19
- Jared ButlerAssists10
- Adem BonaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–95
- Q412.1Keshad Johnson defensive rebound118–95
- Q416.1Ricky Council IV misses free throw 2 of 2118–95
- Q416.1Ricky Council IV makes free throw 1 of 2118–95
- Q416.1Pelle Larsson shooting foul118–94
- Q424.1Adem Bona defensive rebound118–94
- Q428.0Josh Christopher misses 24-foot three point jumper118–94
- Q436.1Phillip Wheeler enters the game for Justin Edwards118–94
- Q436.1Adem Bona loose ball foul118–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:43Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Terry Rozier assists)MIA 57 – 52 PHI · MIA 72% → 79% +7MIA 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q37:22Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 69 – 62 PHI · MIA 77% → 83% +7MIA 77% → 83%+7 pts
- Q35:46Jared Butler makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ricky Council IV assists)MIA 72 – 67 PHI · PHI 14% → 21% +7PHI 14% → 21%+7 pts
- Q34:53Haywood Highsmith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)MIA 75 – 69 PHI · MIA 74% → 81% +8MIA 74% → 81%+8 pts
- Q34:09Alec Burks makes 22-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 80 – 71 PHI · MIA 82% → 88% +6MIA 82% → 88%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -7.5
- ML MIA -320 / PHI +260
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5
- MIA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 69.1%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -274
- PHI +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 111.0 – 103.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1346 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −75 | MIA: Missing Andrew Wiggins −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −39 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +140 Elo | MIA 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 71.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.4 | Points scored | 110.025th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 115.720th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −5.625th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 110.422nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 116.026th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.2 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–22 | Road vs home | 12–2326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−12 Elo- Andrew Wiggins right hamstring−6 Elo
76ers
−75 Elo- Tyrese Maxey right finger−39 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–41 | 26–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–21 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 15–20 | 20–28 |
| Overs–unders | 38–35 | 44–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.