Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints29
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds9
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints36
- Davion MitchellAssists6
- Kel'el WareRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–122
- Q45.1shot clock turnover112–122
- Q427.1Haywood Highsmith defensive rebound112–122
- Q430.0Trae Young misses two point shot112–122
- Q436.2Hawks Full timeout112–122
- Q436.2Davion Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)112–122
- Q448.0Heat Full timeout112–119
- Q452.1Caris LeVert personal take foul112–119
- Q41:00Caris LeVert makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)112–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:59Vit Krejci makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)ATL 46 – 43 MIA · ATL 47% → 55% +8ATL 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q22:50Haywood Highsmith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)ATL 55 – 53 MIA · MIA 39% → 47% +8MIA 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q49:51Vit Krejci makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zaccharie Risacher assists)ATL 91 – 97 MIA · ATL 14% → 23% +9ATL 14% → 23%+9 pts
- Q42:45Trae Young makes 29-foot running pullup jump shotATL 109 – 114 MIA · ATL 4% → 13% +9ATL 4% → 13%+9 pts
- Q42:18Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 109 – 117 MIA · MIA 89% → 97% +9MIA 89% → 97%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -1.5
- ML ATL +105 / MIA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -0.5
- MIA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 51.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 111.5 – 113.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −10 | ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Missing Kevin Love −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +10 Elo | MIA 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 109.226th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 110.37th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −1.117th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 110.821st of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 111.912th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.7 | Pace | 97.230th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 17–1922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+20 Elo- Jalen Johnson left shoulder surgery−13 Elo
Heat
−10 Elo- Kevin Love personal−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–36 | 31–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–17 | 16–21 |
| Underdog | 25–19 | 15–20 |
| Overs–unders | 43–29 | 37–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–4 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.