Portland Trail Blazers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints33
- Deni AvdijaAssists4
- Donovan ClinganRebounds10
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints28
- Josh HartAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–110
- Q412.1shot clock turnover93–110
- Q434.0Landry Shamet defensive rebound93–110
- Q436.1Justin Minaya misses free throw 2 of 293–110
- Q436.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound93–110
- Q436.1Justin Minaya misses free throw 1 of 293–110
- Q436.1Precious Achiuwa enters the game for Mikal Bridges93–110
- Q436.1Pacome Dadiet enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns93–110
- Q436.1Tyler Kolek enters the game for OG Anunoby93–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:59Shaedon Sharpe makes 25-foot three pointer (Toumani Camara assists)POR 63 – 54 NY · POR 54% → 63% +9POR 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q34:35OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mitchell Robinson assists)POR 72 – 68 NY · NY 38% → 49% +10NY 38% → 49%+10 pts
- Q31:25Landry Shamet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)POR 78 – 77 NY · NY 46% → 58% +12NY 46% → 58%+12 pts
- Q410:47Landry Shamet makes 27-foot three point shot (Mikal Bridges assists)POR 80 – 82 NY · NY 56% → 68% +12NY 56% → 68%+12 pts
- Q49:51Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)POR 80 – 87 NY · NY 76% → 85% +9NY 76% → 85%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -7.5
- ML POR +230 / NY -280
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3
- NY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- NY: Elo 62.4%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- NY -243
- POR +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 106.5 – 114.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | −31 | POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Missing Cameron Payne −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | −12 | POR crossed 3 time zones and NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +88 Elo | NY 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 71.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.9 | Points scored | 116.59th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 112.312th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.5 | Margin | +4.28th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 116.85th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 98.726th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–24 | Road vs home | 24–129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+34 Elo- Deandre Ayton strained left calf−14 Elo
Knicks
−31 Elo- Cameron Payne sprained right ankle−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–33 | 34–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 29–30 |
| Underdog | 36–28 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders | 38–36 | 40–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 0–3 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.