Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints31
- Jamal SheadAssists9
- Ja'Kobe WalterRebounds8
76ers- Lonnie Walker IVPoints23
- Lonnie Walker IVAssists7
- Ricky Council IVRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–109
- Q40.1shot clock turnover127–109
- Q423.0A.J. Lawson defensive rebound127–109
- Q424.1Alex Reese misses 22-foot three point jumper127–109
- Q435.0Cole Swider makes 14-foot step back jumpshot127–109
- Q438.1Cole Swider offensive rebound125–109
- Q440.0Jonathan Mogbo misses driving floating jump shot125–109
- Q450.1A.J. Lawson offensive rebound125–109
- Q453.0Jamison Battle misses 27-foot three point jumper125–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:18Cole Swider makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamison Battle assists)TOR 30 – 26 PHI · TOR 68% → 74% +6TOR 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q13.1Jalen Hood-Schifino makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 32 – 31 PHI · PHI 26% → 32% +6PHI 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q210:18Jamison Battle makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)TOR 37 – 33 PHI · TOR 68% → 74% +6TOR 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q32:17Jonathan Mogbo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)TOR 88 – 79 PHI · TOR 80% → 87% +7TOR 80% → 87%+7 pts
- Q31:40Jamison Battle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Mogbo assists)TOR 91 – 81 PHI · TOR 82% → 89% +7TOR 82% → 89%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -6.5
- ML TOR -240 / PHI +200
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -4
- TOR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 66.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -212
- PHI +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.0 – 109.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1336 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −28 | −65 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +119 Elo | TOR 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.4 | Points scored | 109.825th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 115.720th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.6 | Margin | −5.925th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 110.322nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 116.126th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 26th of 3010–26 | Road vs home | 12–2426th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–28 | 26–48 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 39–23 | 20–29 |
| Overs–unders | 36–38 | 44–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–4 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.