New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints25
- OG AnunobyAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds13
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints27
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–124
- Q43.1MarJon Beauchamp makes free throw 2 of 2105–124
- Q43.1MarJon Beauchamp makes free throw 1 of 2104–124
- Q43.1Luke Travers shooting foul103–124
- Q416.1Emoni Bates makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylon Tyson assists)103–124
- Q424.1Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound103–121
- Q427.0Anton Watson misses 25-foot three point jumper103–121
- Q439.0Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes two point shot103–121
- Q439.0Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound103–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:24OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)NY 49 – 35 CLE · NY 49% → 57% +8NY 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q24:30OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Josh Hart assists)NY 56 – 41 CLE · NY 55% → 63% +8NY 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q310:57Max Strus makes 27-foot three point shot (Darius Garland assists)NY 62 – 58 CLE · CLE 53% → 62% +9CLE 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q37:45Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)NY 68 – 69 CLE · CLE 66% → 74% +8CLE 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q32:15Josh Hart makes 27-foot three pointer (Delon Wright assists)NY 83 – 83 CLE · NY 22% → 32% +9NY 22% → 32%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -10.5
- ML NY +400 / CLE -600
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8
- CLE 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 78.0%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -429
- NY +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 110.0 – 120.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1659 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −33 | +25 | NY: Missing Mitchell Robinson −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +220 Elo | CLE 78.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 77.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 77.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 122.31st of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 112.312th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +10.02nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 120.11st of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 110.38th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.77th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–15 | Road vs home | 32–52nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−33 Elo- Mitchell Robinson left ankle−5 Elo
Cavaliers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–39 | 45–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–30 | 41–28 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 40–35 | 49–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 2–3 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.