Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints39
- Devin BookerAssists11
- Nick RichardsRebounds11
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints37
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists11
- Brook LopezRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–133
- Q45.1Taurean Prince defensive rebound123–133
- Q46.1Cody Martin misses 15-foot jumper123–133
- Q411.1Ryan Rollins makes free throw 2 of 2123–133
- Q411.1Ryan Rollins makes free throw 1 of 2123–132
- Q411.1Devin Booker personal take foul123–131
- Q412.2Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot three point jumper123–131
- Q418.1Taurean Prince makes dunk (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)120–131
- Q424.1Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound120–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:52Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)PHX 61 – 63 MIL · MIL 63% → 71% +8MIL 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q39:30Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)PHX 63 – 68 MIL · MIL 71% → 78% +7MIL 71% → 78%+7 pts
- Q46:21Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cody Martin assists)PHX 103 – 109 MIL · PHX 7% → 14% +8PHX 7% → 14%+8 pts
- Q45:55Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)PHX 103 – 112 MIL · MIL 86% → 94% +7MIL 86% → 94%+7 pts
- Q41:20Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 120 – 124 MIL · PHX 1% → 9% +8PHX 1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -6.5
- ML PHX +245 / MIL -300
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6
- MIL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 72.5%, market 72.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -259
- PHX +259 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 109.5 – 116.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −77 | −21 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +168 Elo | MIL 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 67.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 72.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 114.214th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 112.313th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +1.912th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 113.213th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 111.311th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.8 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–25 | Road vs home | 23–1411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–45 | 38–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 25–26 |
| Underdog | 12–20 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 39–36 | 37–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–1 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.