Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Zaccharie RisacherPoints36
- Trae YoungAssists19
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds10
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints31
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game145–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter145–124
- Q40.1Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound145–124
- Q41.1Tyler Smith misses 22-foot three point jumper145–124
- Q46.1shot clock turnover145–124
- Q419.1Dominick Barlow offensive rebound145–124
- Q421.1Zaccharie Risacher misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot145–124
- Q445.0Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound145–124
- Q448.1Chris Livingston misses 27-foot three point jumper145–124
- Q455.1Tyler Smith defensive rebound145–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:17Trae Young makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 57 – 56 MIL · ATL 36% → 44% +7ATL 36% → 44%+7 pts
- Q27:14Gary Trent Jr. makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)ATL 59 – 63 MIL · MIL 61% → 68% +7MIL 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q25:59Zaccharie Risacher makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)ATL 68 – 65 MIL · ATL 42% → 49% +8ATL 42% → 49%+8 pts
- Q23:06Georges Niang makes 23-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 75 – 70 MIL · ATL 47% → 56% +8ATL 47% → 56%+8 pts
- Q22:24Ryan Rollins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)ATL 77 – 73 MIL · MIL 39% → 47% +8MIL 39% → 47%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -4.5
- ML ATL +145 / MIL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4.5
- MIL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 67.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -154
- ATL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.5 – 120.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −9 | ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +126 Elo | MIL 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 114.115th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 111.910th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 113.113th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 111.011th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.6 | Pace | 100.616th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 23–1311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+17 Elo- Jalen Johnson left shoulder surgery−14 Elo
Bucks
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–37 | 38–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–17 | 25–25 |
| Underdog | 25–20 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 44–29 | 36–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–4 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.