New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints30
- Josh HartAssists11
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints16
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Terance MannRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–105
- Q415.0shot clock turnover121–105
- Q438.1Landry Shamet defensive rebound121–105
- Q441.1Daeqwon Plowden misses 25-foot three point jumper121–105
- Q449.1Daeqwon Plowden defensive rebound121–105
- Q452.0Landry Shamet misses 23-foot three point jumper121–105
- Q41:18Vit Krejci makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mouhamed Gueye assists)121–105
- Q41:33Kevin McCullar Jr. enters the game for Josh Hart121–102
- Q41:33Hawks defensive team rebound121–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:34Delon Wright makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 3 – 5 ATL · NY 43% → 49% +6NY 43% → 49%+6 pts
- Q110:26Trae Young makes 30-foot three pointerNY 3 – 8 ATL · ATL 51% → 57% +6ATL 51% → 57%+6 pts
- Q17:59Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 13 – 10 ATL · NY 53% → 60% +6NY 53% → 60%+6 pts
- Q17:18Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 16 – 12 ATL · NY 55% → 62% +6NY 55% → 62%+6 pts
- Q16:28Dyson Daniels makes 25-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)NY 19 – 17 ATL · ATL 36% → 43% +6ATL 36% → 43%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML NY -125 / ATL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1
- NY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- NY: Elo 54.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 118.5 – 117.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | +19 | NY: Missing Jalen Brunson −57 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +33 Elo | NY 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 57.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 117.85th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 119.627th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | −1.819th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 111.920th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 113.618th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.6 | Pace | 104.72nd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–16 | Road vs home | 19–1818th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−36 Elo- Jalen Brunson right ankle sprain−57 Elo
Hawks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–40 | 38–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–30 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 5–10 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 40–36 | 46–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–3 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.