Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints25
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds14
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints34
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–120
- Q41.0Hawks offensive team rebound118–120
- Q41.0Trae Young misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot118–120
- Q43.1Trae Young enters the game for Terance Mann118–120
- Q43.1Georges Niang enters the game for Zaccharie Risacher118–120
- Q43.1Max Christie enters the game for Klay Thompson118–120
- Q43.1Hawks Full timeout118–120
- Q43.1Anthony Davis makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot118–120
- Q47.1Terance Mann enters the game for Georges Niang118–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:20Dyson Daniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)ATL 109 – 111 DAL · ATL 22% → 36% +14ATL 22% → 36%+14 pts
- Q42:19Dyson Daniels makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 116 – 115 DAL · ATL 30% → 57% +27ATL 30% → 57%+27 pts
- Q41:46Onyeka Okongwu makes 6-foot two point shot (Caris LeVert assists)ATL 118 – 115 DAL · ATL 59% → 78% +19ATL 59% → 78%+19 pts
- Q441.1Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)ATL 118 – 118 DAL · DAL 10% → 51% +41DAL 10% → 51%+41 pts
- Q43.1Anthony Davis makes 10-foot driving floating jump shotATL 118 – 120 DAL · DAL 50% → >99% +50DAL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3.5
- ML ATL +140 / DAL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4.5
- DAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 67.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -149
- ATL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 118.5 – 122.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +23 | +49 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +128 Elo | DAL 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 114.912th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 115.117th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 113.312th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 113.619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.7 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 14th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 20–1716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–38 | 38–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders | 46–29 | 41–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 0–3 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.