Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Keon JohnsonPoints24
- D'Angelo RussellAssists11
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds7
Mavericks- Daniel GaffordPoints17
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists8
- Naji MarshallRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–109
- Q40.1Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2113–109
- Q40.1Jalen Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2112–109
- Q40.1(00:00.3) [Nets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)111–109
- Q40.1Anthony Davis personal take foul111–109
- Q41.2D'Angelo Russell enters the game for Nic Claxton111–109
- Q41.2Nets Full timeout111–109
- Q41.2Nets defensive team rebound111–109
- Q43.0Spencer Dinwiddie misses 25-foot three point jumper111–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:55Tyrese Martin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)BKN 98 – 98 DAL · BKN 23% → 40% +17BKN 23% → 40%+17 pts
- Q43:46Max Christie makes 22-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)BKN 100 – 103 DAL · DAL 58% → 78% +20DAL 58% → 78%+20 pts
- Q43:21Tyrese Martin makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)BKN 103 – 103 DAL · BKN 21% → 42% +21BKN 21% → 42%+21 pts
- Q41:16D'Angelo Russell makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 107 – 107 DAL · BKN 22% → 45% +23BKN 22% → 45%+23 pts
- Q447.1Nic Claxton makes 2-foot layup (D'Angelo Russell assists)BKN 110 – 107 DAL · BKN 62% → 87% +25BKN 62% → 87%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -9.5
- ML BKN +325 / DAL -435
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -9.5
- DAL 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 82.2%, market 77.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -346
- BKN +346 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.0 – 114.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1339 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | +34 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +266 Elo | DAL 82.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 74.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 74.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 77.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.1 | Points scored | 115.012th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 115.118th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.8 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.9 | Offense rating | 113.312th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 113.519th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–26 | Road vs home | 20–1616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+34 Elo- Dereck Lively II stress fracture, right ankle−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–34 | 38–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 15–16 |
| Underdog | 37–27 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders | 33–42 | 40–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–3 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.