Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints20
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists11
- Spencer DinwiddieRebounds8
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints28
- Matas BuzelisAssists6
- Coby WhiteRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–119
- Q40.2Nikola Vucevic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)120–119
- Q46.1Klay Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2120–116
- Q46.1Naji Marshall enters the game for Brandon Williams119–116
- Q46.1Josh Giddey enters the game for Dalen Terry119–116
- Q46.1Klay Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2119–116
- Q46.1Dalen Terry personal foul118–116
- Q47.1Dalen Terry personal take foul118–116
- Q48.1Brandon Williams enters the game for Kai Jones118–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:36Zach Collins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)DAL 100 – 94 CHI · CHI 13% → 23% +10CHI 13% → 23%+10 pts
- Q47:00Nikola Vucevic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)DAL 100 – 97 CHI · CHI 22% → 36% +14CHI 22% → 36%+14 pts
- Q45:39Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point shot (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DAL 103 – 97 CHI · DAL 66% → 80% +15DAL 66% → 80%+15 pts
- Q45:17Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotDAL 106 – 97 CHI · DAL 81% → 91% +10DAL 81% → 91%+10 pts
- Q452.1Matas Buzelis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)DAL 116 – 113 CHI · CHI 1% → 13% +12CHI 1% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -2.5
- ML DAL +120 / CHI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2.5
- CHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- CHI: Elo 59.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CHI -128
- DAL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 119.0 – 121.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | +17 | DAL: Missing Daniel Gafford −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +69 Elo | CHI 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 117.36th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 119.728th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −2.422nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 111.919th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 114.223rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 104.43rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 14–2224th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+9 Elo- Daniel Gafford right knee sprain−20 Elo
Bulls
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–37 | 39–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 22–21 | 31–25 |
| Overs–unders | 40–34 | 37–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–0 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.