Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Jalen WilsonPoints20
- Cameron JohnsonAssists7
- Cameron JohnsonRebounds9
Wizards- Colby JonesPoints20
- Colby JonesAssists4
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–112
- Q40.0Wizards offensive team rebound115–112
- Q40.0Colby Jones misses 23-foot three point jumper115–112
- Q41.0Wizards Full timeout115–112
- Q41.0Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2115–112
- Q41.0Jalen Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2114–112
- Q41.0JT Thor personal foul113–112
- Q42.1Colby Jones out of bounds bad pass turnover113–112
- Q48.1Jalen Wilson enters the game for Drew Timme113–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:23Noah Clowney makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 96 – 93 WSH · BKN 48% → 65% +17BKN 48% → 65%+17 pts
- Q41:00Tyrese Martin makes 30-foot three point jumper (Drew Timme assists)BKN 111 – 107 WSH · BKN 64% → 92% +29BKN 64% → 92%+29 pts
- Q449.1Colby Jones makes 6-foot two point shotBKN 111 – 109 WSH · WSH 6% → 22% +16WSH 6% → 22%+16 pts
- Q423.0AJ Johnson makes 32-foot three point shot (Colby Jones assists)BKN 111 – 112 WSH · WSH 12% → 72% +60WSH 12% → 72%+60 pts
- Q48.1Drew Timme makes 2-foot layup (Tyrese Martin assists)BKN 113 – 112 WSH · BKN 16% → 84% +67BKN 16% → 84%+67 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wizards 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -2.5
- ML BKN +110 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -3.5
- WSH 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 63.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- BKN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 110.0 – 112.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1331 | 1268 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −54 | +27 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Anthony Gill −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +94 Elo | WSH 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.0 | Points scored | 108.727th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 121.030th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.9 | Margin | −12.330th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 105.130th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 116.928th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 103.14th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–26 | Road vs home | 7–2830th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+27 Elo- Anthony Gill left hip strain−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–34 | 31–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 36–27 | 31–40 |
| Overs–unders | 32–42 | 37–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–3 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.