Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints33
- Deni AvdijaAssists10
- Deni AvdijaRebounds15
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints29
- Trae YoungAssists15
- Dyson DanielsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–113
- Q412.1Duop Reath enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe127–113
- Q412.1Mouhamed Gueye out of bounds bad pass turnover127–113
- Q419.0Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound127–113
- Q421.1Shaedon Sharpe misses 19-foot step back jumpshot127–113
- Q441.0Dominick Barlow makes tip shot127–113
- Q441.1Dominick Barlow offensive rebound127–111
- Q442.1Zaccharie Risacher misses driving layup127–111
- Q451.0Shaedon Sharpe makes 7-foot dunk127–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:24Trae Young makes 29-foot three pointerPOR 63 – 59 ATL · ATL 39% → 48% +9ATL 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q39:12Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 66 – 59 ATL · POR 52% → 61% +9POR 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q410:56Trae Young makes 27-foot three point shot (Vit Krejci assists)POR 97 – 92 ATL · ATL 25% → 36% +11ATL 25% → 36%+11 pts
- Q47:51Deni Avdija makes driving layup (Matisse Thybulle assists)POR 106 – 100 ATL · POR 64% → 73% +9POR 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q46:40Deni Avdija makes 24-foot three point jumper (Matisse Thybulle assists)POR 111 – 103 ATL · POR 71% → 83% +12POR 71% → 83%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -5.5
- ML POR +175 / ATL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -186
- POR +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 115.0 – 120.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +26 | POR: Missing Anfernee Simons −19, Deandre Ayton −17, Scoot Henderson −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +55 Elo | ATL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.7 | Points scored | 117.95th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 119.427th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.7 | Margin | −1.619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 112.119th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 113.619th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.3 | Pace | 104.62nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–25 | Road vs home | 19–1717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+13 Elo- Anfernee Simons right forearm injury−19 Elo
- Deandre Ayton left calf strain−17 Elo
- Scoot Henderson concussion protocol−1 Elo
Hawks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–34 | 37–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 36–29 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders | 38–37 | 45–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.