Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints37
- Devin BookerAssists6
- Oso IghodaroRebounds7
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints31
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Derrick WhiteRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–123
- Q40.1Cody Martin makes 1-foot dunk (Vasilije Micic assists)103–123
- Q43.2Bol Bol offensive rebound101–123
- Q46.1Damion Lee misses 22-foot three point jumper101–123
- Q414.1Cody Martin defensive rebound101–123
- Q415.1Baylor Scheierman misses 16-foot pullup jump shot101–123
- Q417.1Baylor Scheierman offensive rebound101–123
- Q420.1Jordan Walsh misses 26-foot three point jumper101–123
- Q434.1Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bol Bol assists)101–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:05Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)PHX 2 – 5 BOS · BOS 88% → 91% +3BOS 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q110:22Ryan Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 5 – 7 BOS · PHX 8% → 10% +3PHX 8% → 10%+3 pts
- Q18:35Devin Booker makes 29-foot three pointer (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 11 – 9 BOS · PHX 12% → 15% +3PHX 12% → 15%+3 pts
- Q18:18Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 11 – 12 BOS · BOS 85% → 88% +4BOS 85% → 88%+4 pts
- Q17:26Jaylen Brown makes 35-foot three point shotPHX 13 – 15 BOS · BOS 86% → 89% +3BOS 86% → 89%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -14.5
- ML PHX +700 / BOS -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -13
- BOS 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 88.8%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -738
- PHX +738 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 106.0 – 120.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1697 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −78 | +6 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +359 Elo | BOS 88.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 86.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 86.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 88.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 116.78th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 107.93rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +8.83rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 118.22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 109.35th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.8 | Pace | 98.027th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–26 | Road vs home | 24–138th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–46 | 36–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 35–38 |
| Underdog | 12–21 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 40–36 | 35–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 0–3 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.