Miami Heat at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints25
- Tyler HerroAssists9
- Tyler HerroRebounds6
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints24
- Jayson TatumAssists7
- Jaylen BrownRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–103
- Q421.1Jordan Walsh bad pass (Keshad Johnson steals)124–103
- Q434.1Baylor Scheierman offensive rebound124–103
- Q437.1JD Davison misses 27-foot three point jumper124–103
- Q440.0Baylor Scheierman offensive rebound124–103
- Q444.1Drew Peterson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot124–103
- Q451.1Josh Christopher makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)124–103
- Q452.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound121–103
- Q455.1Isaiah Stevens misses running pullup jump shot121–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:41Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotMIA 77 – 69 BOS · BOS 33% → 42% +10BOS 33% → 42%+10 pts
- Q34:28Baylor Scheierman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)MIA 77 – 74 BOS · BOS 48% → 58% +11BOS 48% → 58%+11 pts
- Q31:53Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerMIA 87 – 77 BOS · MIA 59% → 70% +11MIA 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q411:04Sam Hauser makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Derrick White assists)MIA 91 – 84 BOS · BOS 24% → 36% +11BOS 24% → 36%+11 pts
- Q49:43Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 96 – 87 BOS · MIA 63% → 75% +12MIA 63% → 75%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML MIA +360 / BOS -500
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10
- BOS 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 83.0%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -383
- MIA +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 100.5 – 111.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1733 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | −7 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +276 Elo | BOS 83.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 78.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 78.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30109.6 | Points scored | 116.98th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 107.73rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +9.23rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 118.32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 109.05th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.3 | Pace | 98.127th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3015–22 | Road vs home | 24–128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–41 | 36–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 35–37 |
| Underdog | 15–20 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 38–37 | 34–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–10 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.
- Mar 14BOS 103 @ MIA 91Picked BOS 76%Hit
- Feb 10BOS 103 @ MIA 85Picked BOS 73%Hit
- Dec 2MIA 89 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 77%Hit
- May 1MIA 84 @ BOS 118PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Hit
- Apr 29BOS 102 @ MIA 88PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- Apr 27BOS 104 @ MIA 84PlayoffsPicked BOS 66%Hit
- Apr 24MIA 111 @ BOS 101PlayoffsPicked BOS 78%Miss
- Apr 21MIA 94 @ BOS 114PlayoffsPicked BOS 75%Hit